London Office Guide

The Midtown Market

The main thrust of the TMT sector, which averages floorplate sizes of approx. 7,000 sq ft, has been from Central St Giles across Midtown to Angel (Derwent’s Angel Building) in the north. Cost has been a significant driver in this strong and growing sector that favours a relaxed working environment over condensed office arrangements. Whilst Soho and Covent Garden were the locations of choice, cost and availability has clearly moved this sector through need. A clear “cause and effect” scenario worthy of closer scrutiny by property industries’ researchers. Is it significant for instance that Canary Wharf does not seem to be a viable option and why?

One major agency predicts that TMT will provide over 35% of office demand across London in 2012 with names like Linkedin and Skype on the trawl and likely to secure space over the next 12 months. There is no doubt that Midtown provides the assets needed to cater for this demand in all respects except for the important one — supply. And a great irony of the financial crisis so far is that by putting a lot of development activity on ice through financial constraints it has led to a spiral of rental growth as occupiers compete to acquire what little stock is available.

Midtown currently offers approx. 8% availability. This comprises approx 4m sq ft predominantly made up of secondhand space. Recently completed new schemes such as 1 Kingsway are achieving strong returns as discussed above but are lacking in number. The development pipeline needs bolstering if this market is to compete and continue to establish itself as the main market that it deserves to be. Take up is down, but not due to lack of interest but simply the lack of options to consider.

The home grown sectors of Midtown are showing strong signs of thriving with Hult International Business School securing the 23,500 sq ft Conquest House on John Street and the legal world seeing strong activity also.

There is of course an undertone of nervousness across London and rental growth can be considered an irony rather than a signal of organic growth. The headline “waking up to uncertainty” is not without firm foundation and as we all know in the property world nothing beats uncertainty to “put a few things off” for a while.

As Q1 moves comfortably on to Q2, I wonder whether the steady flow in Midtown will be for stronger activity or a steady downward descent in activity? As an agency active in this location we are currently stretched to the limit with ongoing projects and long may this last.

I hear no uncertainty in my client base or the occupiers that I talk with, despite it all.
Q1 always kicks off on a singularly awkward note due to its distinct dissociation from Q4. Q1 hops nicely to Q2 and on, until Q4 drops off the cliff, returning uncomfortably to Q1. This is a feeling exacerbated by the addition of the year. That last digit seemingly distorting the world of statistics irrevocably. If it’s going to happen, it will be between Q4 and Q1.

And the shift from Q4/11 to Q1/12 is no rulebreaker. Recent property reports bear uncomfortable promise with headlines such as “Waking up to uncertainty” and “the summer is over (well, I never) but…”. Indeed Barclays Capital recently provided commentary, after much research, on the statistical correlation between the erection of towers and the depression of economies. Skyscraper construction having an “unhealthy correlation” with financial crashes. The Shard being noted as the ultimate harbinger of downturn (bearing a beautifully Tolkien image with it) and spawning a headline “Shard could signal crisis, says BarCap”. Are we in for a storm?

On the ground though, things are different. Midtown has few “skyscrapers” and activity has been strong with continued rental growth, albeit created through a worrying lack of supply rather than overwrought demand for new space. Indeed the location is losing high rise office space as landmark office towers such as Centrepoint seem destined for residential conversion. What will local agents do when robbed of the opportunity to break the ice with that little fact that Centrepoint famously stood empty for almost a decade after development back in 1966?

The last quarter has seen a busy time in Midtown with significant lettings such as 25,000 sq ft to John Laing Plc at UK and European Investments Ltd’s, 1 Kingsway, London WC2 at a staggering £65.00 per sq ft and Farrer and Co LLP leasing of 21,000 sq ft at 20 Lincoln’s Inn Fields WC2 at a rent reflecting almost £37.00 per sq ft. The former reflecting the rent that can now be dictated in the area due to the lack of supply of new office accommodation generally across London and the high levels being achieved in the West End of over £95.00 per sq ft.

Midtown has been a main benefactor of the rise of the so called TMT, or Telecommunications, Media and Technology, sector and in particular Google taking approx. 160,000 sq ft in Central St Giles amongst others. Lack of supply in the area has caused a great opportunity to be THE London TMT centre, which Midtown could be, to be lost as Microsoft and Experian were finally drawn to Victoria as a base due to the availability of large floor plates.